Google trends: prediction for end of SRO

[Kaigar]

Noticed something interesting (yet totally unsurprising) on Google trends about the popularity of silkroad online. Looks like the game reached its peak in mid 2007 and has been steadily declining ever since.



I decided to use the graph to make a prediction about when SRO will officially die, assuming a rough linear regression model.



It turns out to be around mid 2011. Who here would agree with this figure? Any better ideas using a bit more than estimation by eye and MS Paint?

[AutumnLeaves]

I put by 2011, just cause mid 2011 seems to far away and anything before then seems to early.

[Shaka Laka]

cool prediction bro.

[reyboy7]

man it is called forecasting based on the data above.
you are predicting base on the history of isro since it was started.

[Goseki]

Well JM obviously already did that since they announced SRO 2 would be coming out. Since 2010 and 2011 are big mmo years, odds are that's when SRO 2 will be coming out. It will just be a re-vamped thing most likely. Server switches, slightly new graphics, prob more 3d-ish. This way, they can get all the publicity and get a new wave of players for another 5 years until SRO3 comes out. SRO 3 will be a whole new concept where you are the mobs and you must go, rape, pillage, plunder, and eat the babies.

~boredom.

[Kaigar]

I remember reading about SRO 2 a while back, but I never saw anything official like a press release, just fansite rumours. Anyone got a veritable link?

SRO 3 will be a whole new concept where you are the mobs and you must go, rape, pillage, plunder, and eat the babies.

Also, lol.

[XxDeeDeeDeexX]

Eventually its just going to be 1 player on every server, filling the 3500 slots. But its been dead since the start of 80 cap.

[Squirt]

I feel that SRO is a game that can have a very long lifeline.
Like WoW, SRO has potential to be one of those games that makes it past the 10 year mark with official servers that are still up such as Starcraft.
It takes a really special company to fu** up a game that was really unique.




Don't get me wrong but doesn't Google trends monitor how often a matter is searched?
This doesn't mean that SRO's activity is in the crapper...

[Kolossal]

voted for 2011

[TheDrop]

By mid 2011 at most imo

[bot_antist]

Well JM obviously already did that since they announced SRO 2 would be coming out. Since 2010 and 2011 are big mmo years, odds are that's when SRO 2 will be coming out. It will just be a re-vamped thing most likely. Server switches, slightly new graphics, prob more 3d-ish. This way, they can get all the publicity and get a new wave of players for another 5 years until SRO3 comes out. SRO 3 will be a whole new concept where you are the mobs and you must go, rape, pillage, plunder, and eat the babies.

~boredom.

SilkRoad 4 - modern trading? you go fishing for exp? instead of a camel you get a container ship and the thieves are the somali pirates?

[Achilles990]

I feel that SRO is a game that can have a very long lifeline.
Like WoW, SRO has potential to be one of those games that makes it past the 10 year mark with official servers that are still up such as Starcraft.
It takes a really special company to fu** up a game that was really unique.

Don't get me wrong but doesn't Google trends monitor how often a matter is searched?
This doesn't mean that SRO's activity is in the crapper...

I agree with him, even with bots still a amazing game.

Well JM obviously already did that since they announced SRO 2 would be coming out.

First of all thats total BS! Online games like sro dont come out with new generation, they just keep coming out with Legends(patches) like WoW there ain't going be no 2nd sro or ending to it this games never end, plus there no reason either JM can still fix sro.

I been play this game 4 years one thing i lern, block goldbots, keep fighting and keep walking dont stop to bitch about it just go on wiht your life. That time line is also BS, cuz sro has been the same for past 4 years, same drama, same shit, same bitching, same noobs(begging for more money), yes it was fun at 80cap cuz you had more mastery big freaking deal i did my share of curse hearts you don't see me bitching about it just keep on going and enjoy this game. You should try enjoy it more and quit bitching, and trying find the errors on it!!

SRO is one of the best online game ever!!


PS. forgot one more option: Never.

[dominoes]

Shits dead already, still an awesome game though.

[Amarisa]

this is exactly like the global warming conspiracy

Bob: "Oh my god Joe i see a trend thats going up!"
Joe: "Oh shit! global warming!"

some time in 2010 joymax will release Silkroad 2 to try and bring back some of its player base. Silkroad will "die" around the same time wow does because the mmo gaming community will get bored of mmo's and stop playing them.

[TheKnight]

Where is the option for 2012?

[Amarisa]

Where is the option for 2012?

in this thread

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=117026

[Kaigar]

this is exactly like the global warming conspiracy

Bob: "Oh my god Joe i see a trend thats going up!"
Joe: "Oh shit! global warming!"

some time in 2010 joymax will release Silkroad 2 to try and bring back some of its player base. Silkroad will "die" around the same time wow does because the mmo gaming community will get bored of mmo's and stop playing them.

You might be on the money there; looking up WoW and a few other MMORPGs showed up a similar trend. Of course my analysis of the trends are entirely un-scientific, and you can read into them as much or as little as you like. This thread is mostly just for fun. There'll always be a baseline level of players in SRO as long as the servers are operational, regardless of how unpopular the game becomes.

[_Razor_]

Sro in 2006-2007 :

Legits dominated game
Chinese race was awsome
Leveling was good
Trading system was fun
it was worth of stalling
low level cap
Pvp was fun

Sro 2009 - ?
Botters dominated game
high level cap
you cant level
old trade system scrapped
Euros killed the game and pvp
golbots farked upp prices in stall

[Ownage]

Well it may be a bit longer then you predicted, because by 2011 they should have atleast 11d, if not 12d! After a new cap comes out a lot of people rush back in to see how it is, though most leave after a while too. The people who were lvl 90+ that quit enjoy the new cap and stay longer because getting from lvl90->105/110 will take forever.

[chickenfeather]

Mmm I think 2011 is too soon for it to end, but it's likely that SRO 2 will be out by then. Even if the official servers shut down, a lot of private servers may pop up.

OT : The trend for porn vs the trend for sro O_O (porn is red line, sro is blue line)

[Poochu]

Predictions like this are incorrect.

They are based on current levels and figures, expecting them not to change. They don't take into factor things such as, new silkroad legends released, new degrees, maybe they ban bots? etc.

Thus this is completely innacurate.

[Barotix]

Predictions like this are incorrect.

They are based on current levels and figures, expecting them not to change. They don't take into factor things such as, new silkroad legends released, new degrees, maybe they ban bots? etc.

Thus this is completely innacurate.

Each one of the "spikes" corresponds with a new legend or "promise" of a bot ban, people return in anticipation of new content or revitalized gameplay. We see the largest recording of this in legend 1 "Europe Update" because Joymax two claims: 1]Europe would completely change gameplay, which they delivered. 2]Bots would be unable to access the game, this lasted ~1 month, it didn't take long for all of them to return. The full servers are a lie, we see this after a major update when there are barely 500 people on each server.

[ltsune]

I voted for 2011. However, by then, we will probably have sro2 beta stage so who cares

[HuNt3rMx]

Isro died since Euro update IMO.

[Nick Invaders]

2010-2011 (Can't really give anything accurate) I put by 2011 though.
There are still legits playing. I will expect the game to sharply decrease in legit players by the 110 cap unless they fix the amount of exp needed to level up. Eventually bots will quit too once they find out they need to bot for like 2 months straight for lvl 109 ---> 110

[omier]

Why are you speaking about SRO 2?
Why would JM need to make a new one?
SRO 2 will not come.

[XesoS]

Why are you speaking about SRO 2?
Why would JM need to make a new one?
SRO 2 will not come.

thats what she said

[IreMoon]

I doubt there will be an SRO2 i'm sure they making good money from the item mall.

First of all thats total BS! Online games like sro dont come out with new generation, they just keep coming out with Legends(patches) like WoW there ain't going be no 2nd sro or ending to it this games never end, plus there no reason either JM can still fix sro.

You are wrong there, everquest has 2 versions out and if I remember correct I read the guild wars is coming out with a 2nd version. Sometimes the engine can't support what they want to add and they have to release another version this is risky for the company cause it dilutes the player base between 2 games and they may not want to start over. Games that have higher end graphics show there age quite quickly as more and more advancements are made. I know there are a lot of critics of WOW graphics being cartoony and all they are you get used to it when there is good game play but this cartoony has allowed the engine to hold up well over a longer period of time.

[Gladiator_RN]

SRO won't be anymore dead as usual. not in 2010 or in 2011.
it will just always be the same. full servers, gold bots, bots and a little pvp at the gates.

[You_Dead_Yet]

Isro died since Euro update IMO.

lol SRO would have been dead long time ago if it was not of euro.

the few legits party lefts are mostly euros, chinese need more sp to be full farmed than euros (so takes longer, more people get bored and quit), a lot of people restarted characters and started from scratch with euros instead of getting bored with their chinese they been using for already some years..

anyway chinese PVE is so dull, i would have quit long ago if it was not of the 8/8 euros partys. (just my personnal opinion)

oh and look Mid 2007 on the graphic, thats the biggest peak there. And what happened at that time?
Yes, euro update.