MOSCOW, November 24 (RIA Novosti) - A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.
Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily Izvestia published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."
The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.
When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."
When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."
He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.
He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all."
On the fate of the U.S. dollar, he said: "In 2006 a secret agreement was reached between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. on a common Amero currency as a new monetary unit. This could signal preparations to replace the dollar. The one-hundred dollar bills that have flooded the world could be simply frozen. Under the pretext, let's say, that terrorists are forging them and they need to be checked."
When asked how Russia should react to his vision of the future, Panarin said: "Develop the ruble as a regional currency. Create a fully functioning oil exchange, trading in rubles... We must break the strings tying us to the financial Titanic, which in my view will soon sink."
Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.
It seems to me that, in our days, many predictions are spread across the world to influence on people's mentality, such as the world war in 2008 due to the war in Middle East, the end of oil in 2050 due to its mass consumption, the end of schools in 2010 due to a lack of teachers, the apocalypse in 2012 which is pure fiction. However, many of these predictions are simply speculation, or simple methods to make us citizens save more money for the state (which is the case of all those predictions on how oil will end soon). In the end, most of them are false.
It is how Professor Igor Panarin, the author of this text, has based his ideas. What we have here is another attempt of brain-washing a few citizens. But why would Panarin want to do so, what are the political reasons behind this, if there are any?
This document is obviously political. It has been written by a "professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs" (mentioned in the end of the text), in the 24th December 2008, quite a few months after the crisis began. The author was born, and lived through the heart of the Cold War in the middle of the past century, during which russian kids were most likely told to hate Americans and vice-versa. Thus, Panarin probably developped a bad point of view upon the United States during and after his childhood.
Which is why his arguments are susceptible to be based on a negative point of view upon the actual status of the U.S.A., and thus not 100% reliable. An example of his pessimism can be found in his second answer to the interview:
"It is already collapsing[...]Their losses are the biggest in history.
As we can see, this is solid proof on how he is being pessimist, and not reliable, as his argument on how the current "losses are the biggest in history" is purely exageration and thus false, as there have been moments in history in which the population went through worse losses. An example is what happened to Germany after the first world war, they tried to make tons of coins in order to recover from the war, which led them to become even more poor as the value of every coin eventually went straight downhill.
As for a second proof of his pessimism, which I'll not go into details this time:
Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse.
Starting his argument by his conclusion is indeed "very smart". It just immediatly shows he is not saying this from a neutral point of view.
I have mentined, in the introduction to my arguments, the probability of a political reason behind this. In fact, it would be plausible to believe this could be an attempt to bring Russia back to power, as they went downhill after the end of the Cold War. Professor Igor mentions this kind of idea in his second reply to the interview:
When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
It's indeed quite interesting how he brings China into this. Let's not forget that China's government still is Communist. Moreover, this country isn't yet developped nor rich enough to assume the role being played by the States in this right moment. I have to agree China will maybe be one of the most powerfull countries in the world by the next century, but not at this right moment.
Even more interesting when he mentions Russia (his own country). The European Union would be by far a better choice to "play the role of a regulator in Eurasia" as it is in average much richer than Russia, if not comparable to the United States. For example, the european currency (the Euro) is one of the most powerfull currencies in the world, and also the fastest growing, superior to the American Dollar and sooner or later superior to the english Pound.
Another proof on how Panarim is somehow claiming power for Russia is in his 6th reply to the interview:
He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all."
Why would they claim more territory? It is in people's mentality, since the age of roman emperors, that bigger the territory of a country, the more it is a symbol of
power.
As a last argument, this is his last answer to the interviewer:
When asked how Russia should react to his vision of the future, Panarin said: "Develop the ruble as a regional currency. Create a fully functioning oil exchange, trading in rubles... We must break the strings tying us to the financial Titanic, which in my view will soon sink."
It is obvious that an idependent country with its own ressources is much more powerfull than a country that depends on others to get ressources. Take on example the States and Japan. The USA have their own ressources and that's one of the factors that makes it a strong country: it can influence over other countries. In the other hand, Japan has no inner ressources and is depending on other countries to continue developping. Even though it is the most developped country in the world, in terms of technology, if one day they have to go on exploiting their own ressources, they're most likely doomed. Such countries can be very easily manipulated by other independent countries ("if you don't do this then I don't give you ressources etc."), one of the reasons Japan doesn't have the Nuclear Bomb (the USA won't let them).
The point of all this is, independent countries have influence (more like control) over dependent countries. If Russia fully becomes one, they will eventually have more
power all over the world.
To put a conclusion to this long comment, in my opinion what we have here is another attempt to bring Russia to power, by brain-washing citizens using speculation (not always real), based on real facts (the crisis), all the way written by a pessimist and not so reliable russian professor.
Yea, you learn quite a lot from highschool, especially how to write these sorts of long comments 
just wanna have a good discussion.
Reise for Mod.
