Yes, I understand, but the word "predicted" throws me off. If we're observing a collapse, that means the light already got here and the event has already occurred. none of this "predicted" shit.
If we are observing what we think may be a collapse or supernova, then we won't know for a while, since the measurement varies but seems to be around 1200-1300 light years.
Double suns, ha, it'll be a pinprick in intensity compared to the real sun. Sure it'll be visible though.
http://news.discovery.com/space/dont-pa ... -2012.html'Phil Plait weighed on the previous Betelgeuse-doomsday scenario last year, and in two paragraphs he puts the danger of Betelgeuse to bed:
Having said all that, I’ll note that someday, Betelgeuse will explode. That’s for certain! But it’s also way too far away to hurt us. A supernova has to be no farther than about 25 light years away to be able to fry us with light or anything else, and Betelgeuse is 25 times that distance (which means its power to hurt us is weakened by over 600x). It’s the wrong kind of star to explode as a gamma-ray burst, so I’m not worried about that either.
At that distance, it’ll get bright, about as bright as the full Moon. That’s pretty bright! It’ll hurt your eyes to look at it, but that’s about it. The original post says it may get as bright as the Sun, but that’s totally wrong. It won’t even get 1/100,000th that bright. Still bright, but it’s not going to cook us. Even if it were going to explode soon. Which it almost certainly isn’t.'
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/2 ... 11864.html"The Star Wars-esque scenario could happen by 2012, Carter says... or it could take longer. The explosion could also cause a neutron star or result in the formation of a black hole 1300 light years from Earth, reports news.com.au."
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2376132,00.aspI love how several sources report 640 light years and some report 1200-1300.
Anyway. "could be as early as 2012" means shit to me. Show me percentage chances of events occurring in X years

so who's right?