ALCHEMY UPGRADING-THE PERCENTAGES!

[gould]

POSTED BY MRMOOSE @ http://www.silkroadtavern.com/forums/

Here's what we do: if a bunch of people can log their alchemy successes vs. failures and post them here, we can make a list with reasonable accuracy.

For example, here are mine:

(with lucky)

to +1: 8/8
to +2: 4/6
to +3: 5/8
to +4: 0/0
to +5: 0/1

(without lucky)

to +1: 0/0
to +2: 0/0
to +3: 0/0
to +4: 0/0
to +5: 0/0

You might notice that I made a separate list for items with lucky attribute.
I used lucky powder for all of them: you should too.

Also, possibly, somebody rich could buy like 100 acc. elixirs and use them on lvl 1 items - then we'd have a real good list.

Please post in this format with ACTUAL DATA, not what you recall from the past. This is to ensure accuracy. (And remember to use lucky powders)

Thank you

[glavie]

What is the purpose of this. Each item has its own built in "luck".

This means that all items are unuiqe. If you tried to + an item over and over and record the results, you would just get accurate information for that one item.

[glavie]

sry double posted

[gould]

What is the purpose of this. Each item has its own built in "luck".

This means that all items are unuiqe. If you tried to + an item over and over and record the results, you would just get accurate information for that one item.

You sure about that?

[EllisD]

What is the purpose of this. Each item has its own built in "luck".

This means that all items are unuiqe. If you tried to + an item over and over and record the results, you would just get accurate information for that one item.

You sure about that?

For the most part yea.

That would explain why sometimes it takes 4 elixirs to get to +4 while other times it might take 100 elixirs.

It has to do with the luck of the item, the luck of the stone, the luck of your character, how much silk youve bought, how many items youve previously tried to + or blue that day.......or, its just random.

[Devotia]

Ellis/glaive: I dunno. If I have a 50% chance of success of getting +1, there's a 1 in 30 chance that 5 in a row will fail. However, there's the same chance that 5 in a row will succeed. Luck is just that, luck. Having individual rolls for each of those things is a LOT of coding that can be done just as easily with one roll.

I do like this idea, but I disagree with lvl 1 items. A lot of the low lvl stuff has stats that are not scaled to higher levels (eg, all earrings have 100%). 2nd/3rd degree would probably be better.

[gould]

I think that it is easier to increase the "+" of an item before it becomes blue.

[fena]

What is the purpose of this. Each item has its own built in "luck".

This means that all items are unuiqe. If you tried to + an item over and over and record the results, you would just get accurate information for that one item.

You sure about that?

Yeah, sadly, it's true. Some weapons'll take you 100 elixers to get to +5, and some will go straight up. They have a fixed percentage - each weapon is different.

[Gul]

What is the purpose of this. Each item has its own built in "luck".

This means that all items are unuiqe. If you tried to + an item over and over and record the results, you would just get accurate information for that one item.

You sure about that?

Yeah, sadly, it's true. Some weapons'll take you 100 elixers to get to +5, and some will go straight up. They have a fixed percentage - each weapon is different.

I think it was morningdew that mentioned it on their forum. They said "some items are luckier than others" or something along that line. I remember reading it.

[borat2]

What is the purpose of this. Each item has its own built in "luck".

This means that all items are unuiqe. If you tried to + an item over and over and record the results, you would just get accurate information for that one item.

You sure about that?

Yeah, sadly, it's true. Some weapons'll take you 100 elixers to get to +5, and some will go straight up. They have a fixed percentage - each weapon is different.

I think it was morningdew that mentioned it on their forum. They said "some items are luckier than others" or something along that line. I remember reading it.

its even in the alchemy help ingame if i am not mistaken

[glavie]

Here you guys go.

http://www.silkroadforums.com/viewtopic.php?t=18488

Here is the screenshot of the help window.

The last time I quoted silkroad they were wrong, so lets hope this time they are correct.

In my experience this makes sense though.

[Shooty]

yup - definitely - an di don't agree with that original post - because all items are unique unless you like add lucky or something (are there lucky tablets?)

[NuclearSilo]

First of all, if u want a same luck, try with NPC items.
Second, statistic and probability of success is 2 different things.

If u make a test with an item with 50% success, and the 1st try u got fail doesnt mean the next try u'd get success.
So using this theory, u could have 10 fails in 10 tries so u cant conclude that the chance of success is 0%

[glavie]

Now that would be interesting. I wonder what the built in luck on a NPC item is. No one actually alchamizes them, since the stats are horrible, but maybe they have great luck.

And statisticly speaking you can get a very accurate estimate of the percent chance of success and fail if you have good sample data.

You would have lots of data for +1 since you will get that the most often and then progressivly less data the higher the +

My theory is it gets progressivly harder to have success up to +4. At that point it either stays the same, or actually gets easier.

Otherwise the odds of bombonyincus on the aege server getting +11 on his blade would be virtually impossible.

So what bored lvl 80 is willing to waste 500+ elixers in the name of science?

[gould]

k..thanx for the helpful advice