Silkroad Online Forums

hi

you know that third book of soul spear which has its first skill at mastery level 58?

well it isays you can hit twice and the probability of a stun is 30%.

anyone know if this is a stun probability of 30% for each of the 2 hits or a combined 30% stun?

because if it is 30% for each of the 2 hit then you would have a 60% stun chance...

thanks

no ofcourse not , each hit has 30 % chance to hit , Two times 30 % isn't 60 %. They both stun 3 times out of 10.
You can't add % , it makes an average. The average of two times 30 % is 30 %. You will stun someone with this hit 3 times out of 10 hits.

lol no.

if both hits have %30 stun probability;

every hit has %70 chance not to stun. probability of not to stun in 2 hits is 7/10 x 7/10 = %49.

so stun probability gotta be %51. i hope i did calculations correctly.

but i dont think both hits can stun. maybe only first or last hit can stun. coz %51 is damn high

Takunya wrote:lol no.

if both hits have %30 stun probability;

every hit has %70 chance not to stun. probability of not to stun in 2 hits is 7/10 x 7/10 = %49.

so stun probability gotta be %51. i hope i did calculations correctly.

but i dont think both hits can stun. maybe only first or last hit can stun. coz %51 is damn high

That is correct.

For the skill as a whole, the stun probability is 51%

um guys unless im mistaken u all have it incorrect..?

if the probability of a stun on the first hit is independent of the probability of a stun on the second hit then this is known as "independent probabilities". This means you can either stun on the first hit or on the second. In which case the total probability is 30%+30% = 60%. that is on average out of every say 10 use sof this skill, you would stun 6 out of 10 times? eithe ron the first or second strike of each of those 10 hits.

However, if the probabiltiy of the first stun depends on the second stun. meaning that you have to have both stun at a 30% chance each before the ending effetct is a stun, then these are known as dependant probabilities. then the chance of a stun at the end, defined as both blows hitting in the 30%, is a multiplication = 30% x 30% = 9%.

i am thinking it is the former (the independent probability type)

that 51% figure is a calculation of the probability of not stunning if in fact the 2 strikes were dependant probabiltiies. you see if they were dependant then you have 4 outcomes :-

1 stun 2 no stun: 0.3 x 0.3 =9%
1 stun 2 stun: 03 x 0.7 =21%
1 no stun 2 stun: 0.7 x 0.3 =21%
1 no stun 2 no stun: 0.7 x 0.7 = 49% (of which the 51% re[resents a stun outcome)

So that 51% is only one of the four outcomes (the last one). The other probabiltiies still need to be added in but only if they are dependant.

so do we know if they are dependent or independent outcomes?

The skill as a whole has 30% chance to stun. It says on the skill... 30% chance of stun... for the SKILL... Why would Joymax take the best status effect in the game and suddenly almost double it at book 3? Wishful thinking.

Bakemaster wrote:The skill as a whole has 30% chance to stun. It says on the skill... 30% chance of stun... for the SKILL... Why would Joymax take the best status effect in the game and suddenly almost double it at book 3? Wishful thinking.

i thought so too.

Hi guys not to ruin the topic but dont u guys kinda get irratated by the fact that the swords and bladers get there enemy knocked down like EVERYTIME they use that move yet the soul spear series hardly stuns? Its just my opinion

well like a 50% knock down starting from the 1x lvls compared to the lousy 20-30% stun, which really never works, and if it does for like 2 seconds , in my opinion, the KD should be more around 30% considering later on you get 3 of em, chains should be the main skill for PvP as a blader... not KD, STAB, KD, KD, STAB, KD, STAB, STAB

doplertin wrote:um guys unless im mistaken u all have it incorrect..?

if the probability of a stun on the first hit is independent of the probability of a stun on the second hit then this is known as "independent probabilities". This means you can either stun on the first hit or on the second. In which case the total probability is 30%+30% = 60%. that is on average out of every say 10 use sof this skill, you would stun 6 out of 10 times? eithe ron the first or second strike of each of those 10 hits.

However, if the probabiltiy of the first stun depends on the second stun. meaning that you have to have both stun at a 30% chance each before the ending effetct is a stun, then these are known as dependant probabilities. then the chance of a stun at the end, defined as both blows hitting in the 30%, is a multiplication = 30% x 30% = 9%.

i am thinking it is the former (the independent probability type)

that 51% figure is a calculation of the probability of not stunning if in fact the 2 strikes were dependant probabiltiies. you see if they were dependant then you have 4 outcomes :-

1 stun 2 no stun: 0.3 x 0.3 =9%
1 stun 2 stun: 03 x 0.7 =21%
1 no stun 2 stun: 0.7 x 0.3 =21%
1 no stun 2 no stun: 0.7 x 0.7 = 49% (of which the 51% re[resents a stun outcome)

So that 51% is only one of the four outcomes (the last one). The other probabiltiies still need to be added in but only if they are dependant.

so do we know if they are dependent or independent outcomes?

Your "dependent" outcomes there are actually calculated assuming each hit is independent. Those are actually the 4 possible results of taking these two events. Notice: 9+21+21+49=100%

The simplest way to determine if an event will occur in two hits is 1-(% not occur at all) which is 51%

I think you're just a little confused with your stats there.

Either way, I think Bake is prolly right about the skill having a 30% chance as a whole of stunning.