freePizza wrote:it usually takes me 10+ elixirs to get to +3 on weapons. i often fail even on the first +. Once i tried to go to +4 on my blade, but after i wasted ~3 mil, i just stopped and brought it to +3. Since then, I just buy weapons plussed.
a little advise, use lucky powders from the trade shop, never fil a +1 again with them, they double ur odds of success with elixirs
Chinese INT: S/S lvl 80 Fully Farmed<retired> EURO: Wizard/Cleric lvl 56 (Fully Farmed to 80) <retired> Chinese STR: Glavie lvl 71 (93k sp) <retired> Uranus: pure INT lvl 69 <retired>
When I was doing my accessories, + 1 almost never failed. It reset so many times and I was getting so sick of it that I didn't use a lucky powder to get to the +1 and it failed. That was the only time it ever ever failed at a +1. I think the odds are consistant with getting +1 being 1:2 odds. Getting +2 is 1:3 odds. Getting +3 is 1:4 odds. And lucky powder adds one to the numerator (fraction form and ratio form are the same) I've never ever had an elixer fail ever using lucky powder to get +1, which makes sense because 1:2 with powder is 2:2 with my theory, which is 100% odds. It's also possible but less likely that lucky powder subtracts one from the denominator but judging by how often +2 worked, 2:3 odds makes more sense than 1:2. And 2:4 sounds about right for +3 also. Now before you say "NAH AH!" remember that odds stack. To go without powder from +0 to +3 has the odds of 1:2 * 1:3 * 1:4 = 1:24, or 4.2% chance of making it all the way. And with lucky powder it would be 2:2 * 2:3 * 2:4 = 1:3 or 33%. That sounds about right because it took slightly more than 3 runs up the chain to finally get +3 using powder. So yeah that's all a guess but that's probably what the odds are.
Oh and since I know you're gonna go calculate it, the odds of getting from +0 to +7 without powder are 1:40320 or 0.002% and with powder, 0.3% So you'd probably have to try 315 times before it would work (with powder)
<<banned from SRF for disrespect of the mod team and rules violations. -SG>>
but anyways grats 
